March 24, 2020 / By admin
Chief economist optimistic about the short-term impact of the A-share outbreak without hindering long-term fundamentals
For stocks, please read Jin Qilin analyst research report, authoritative, professional, timely, and comprehensive, to help you tap potential potential opportunities! Original title: Many chief economists are optimistic about A shares, short-term impact of the epidemic, barrier-free, long-term fundamentals, critical organicThe KLCI dropped 8.13%, SZSE Component Index dropped 8.27%, the GEM Index fell 6.56%.Among the performance of individual stocks in the entire market, currently 143 stocks have increased and 3604 stocks have fallen. Facing the impact of the epidemic, China Business News compiled the views of several chief economists. It is generally believed that the adjustment of A shares is more a short-term short-term reaction. In the long run, the economic development situation has not changed significantly, and policy support is also very strong.Optimistic about the long-term development of A shares. Li Zhan, chief economist of Zhongshan Securities: Since the epidemic continued to ferment and even attracted much attention, stocks began to deviate before the Spring Festival. The Shanghai and Shenzhen 300 and the Shanghai Composite Index fell about 4% in the four trading days before the Spring Festival.The stocks also continued to decline by about 5% in the two trading days after the Spring Festival. During the Spring Festival, under the combined influence of multiple negative factors such as the A50 futures index and the downward fluctuation of European and American stock indexes, the main index of the Shanghai and Shenzhen A-shares may usher in a shock adjustment period. However, whether it is the domestic macro economy or some sub-sectors, the impact of the epidemic situation is generally short-term, and the long-term development of the economy and industry has not changed.Therefore, the probability that the epidemic will affect the A-share market is as short-term as the impact of the SARS epidemic on the A-share market that year.In terms of different industries, the short-term performance of medical supplies, medicines and passively beneficial games, cloud office, and online education related to the epidemic will be greatly boosted.Combined with the performance of the capital market under a similar background of naphthalene, we believe that the pharmaceutical biology, computer, gaming, electronic communications and other industries are expected to achieve better performance. Zhang Ming, chief economist of Ping An Securities: It is difficult to avoid the decline in the opening of the stock market. After all, the risk prediction is a black swan event, which everyone did not expect. Investors are now more risk-averse.But I don’t think we need to worry too much. The cliff-like decline of the index is unlikely. why?I think there are at least two reasons. The first is that it has been announced in advance that it will provide support for a total of more than one trillion yuan in liquidity on February 3.It is important to stabilize the possible overlap of financial market liquidity, including confidence in stabilizing the market.There will be a noticeable boost to overall investor confidence.Secondly, if the stock market changes, official institutional investors, such as securities companies and social security fund indicators, may also try to stabilize the market.Because, in general, if the stock market falls super rationally, in fact buying at this time is often a very good opportunity.Therefore, official investors can play a stable function. Taking these two aspects into consideration, the possible situation is that the opening market first declines and then stabilizes after falling to a certain extent.Individual stocks are hard to say, but the decline of the entire index will not be particularly violent.Investors don’t have to worry too much.Some of my friends also asked, if you want to lighten up or even go short on the morning of the 3rd, I can just wait and see what happens, don’t worry.This shock often does not mean that the stock market has reached an inflection point, and other stock markets have suffered a temporary shock.One view I maintain is that the current Chinese A-share market is actually a better window for investment in general, and there is no need to lose confidence in the entire stock market due to short-term unexpected shocks. Political commissar Lu, chief economist of Industrial Bank: Faced with the epidemic, although many provinces and cities extended the Spring Festival holiday to February 9, most A-share markets still decided to open the market on February 3 as scheduled.This reflects the full confidence of policy authorities in national economic and market recognition.In fact, in the face of the possible impact of the epidemic, policy authorities are fully prepared. Outbreaks are usually short-lived.According to the experience during the SARS period in 2003, the three industries most affected by the epidemic are transportation, wholesale and retail, and catering, but basically these industries will recover quickly after 1-3 months after the epidemic is lifted.At the same time, taking into account the changes in the preliminary economic structure and consumption patterns of the residents in recent years, the proportion of these three industries in the economic size of developing countries has decreased compared to that of SARS at that 北京夜网 time, thus creating a new coronary disease.The relative impact on the economy will be lower than at the time of SARS.The experience of international financial markets is also that the impact of the epidemic will not be sustained. Policies are well prepared.In the face of the epidemic, although many provinces and cities extended the Spring Festival holiday to February 9, each year the A-share market still decided to open the market on February 3 as scheduled.This reflects the full confidence of policy authorities in national economic and market recognition.In fact, in the face of the possible impact of the epidemic, policy authorities are fully prepared.Forward-looking policies and measures are expected to gradually and effectively support market integration. Peng Wensheng, chief economist of Everbright Securities: The impact of the epidemic on the capital market is reflected in two levels: investor sentiment and economic fundamentals. Market fluctuations will increase, but in the long run, it can be ignored.In the early stages of the spread, the epidemic brought more of an emotional disturbance. In short, under current expectations, the epidemic is still spreading, and the short-term market will inevitably be disturbed.Taking Hong Kong stocks as an example, the market has resumed trading on January 29, and the Hang Seng Index has gradually decreased by 5 for two trading days.4%.At the intermediate level of about a quarter, we need to observe how much the epidemic has impacted economic fundamentals.If it is a long-term goal that focuses on more than one year, the impact on the market can be ignored. So Lee Securities Chief Economist Chen Li: During the epidemic, overseas markets generally fell (Hong Kong stocks fell 6% this week, US stocks, and European stocks fell about 3%).We expect the opening decline of the Shanghai Composite Index to be sustainable. Special reminder, supplementary movement of confirmed / suspected case numbers has a disturbing effect on index changes.The impact of a slight increase in the number of confirmed / suspected cases on the index is compared with the increase in the number of new cases during the SARS period of 2003 during the “May 1st Labor Day” period, and only then contributed to the rise in the market after the “Fiveth”.Before that, from April 13 to the end of April, as the number of diabetes increased, the index fell all the way. With the market’s long-term trend, the stock market performance during SARS will be referenced.During SARS, the short-term impact of the outbreak case data on the market is huge. Take April 15, 2003 as an example. (On the same day, the World Health Organization will include Singapore, Taiwan, Canada, Toronto, Hanoi, Vietnam, and areas where the outbreak started. Guangdong, Shanxi.Provinces and Hong Kong are listed as epidemic areas).From April 15 to early June 2003, the performance of A-shares developed simultaneously with the epidemic situation. However, the performance of the 2003 annual stock market was determined by fundamentals. Benefiting from the effects of accumulation and heavy industrialization, the “five golden flowers” (bank, automobile, power, steel, petrochemical) performed well. We believe that for the entire year of 2020, determining the performance of the stock market is still economic fundamentals, and the judgment of high and low is maintained, but the market return period runs to 3-4 months. Yang Delong, chief economist of Qianhai Open Source Fund: Today is the first trading day after the holiday. As I analyzed before, due to the existence of the long holiday effect, the bearish one-time centralized release, the broader market shrinks one step, and the opening limit is now 1,000 shares.Obviously, panic dominates the short-term trend.Pharmaceutical stocks, online education, new energy automobile leading stocks bucked the trend, and white dragon and horse stocks did not fall.It is self-evident that the essence of value investing is that holding stocks with good fundamentals, even today’s limit, do not have to worry, the market outlook will soon rebound, and poor performance stocks and substitute stocks may continue to limit, and stand up. Therefore, I suggest everyone to operate. First, if you are holding high-quality white horse stocks, you don’t need to worry, and you don’t need to worry about short-term reductions, because according to historical experience, the market decline caused by the epidemic is often short-lived.A fast market will usher in a rebound, and good stocks will take the lead in setting a new rebound high, so if you hold high-quality stocks, you can calm down and don’t worry.Secondly, if the holder is a poor performer, change the stock, you must be careful. You can take advantage of this adjustment opportunity to adjust the position and share in a timely manner to find an opportunity to buy high-quality stocks. Li Qilin, chief economist of Yuekai Securities: Before the market growth, there was an expectation of economic stabilization. The epidemic will affect the expectation of economic stabilization. The boots are bad for the broader market, and it is good for bonds, especially long-term interest rate debt.Considering downtime and rigid interest expense pressures, credit risk also needs attention. As far as the sector is concerned, the sectors with favorable epidemic situation have reduced to a few sectors such as biomedicine and online consumer education. The sectors of large finance, large cycle, large consumption, media theater, etc. have reduced pressure.The resolution of these pressures is directly related to the positive control of the epidemic and fiscal and monetary policies. Considering that 2020 is the year when a well-off society will be fully established and poverty alleviation efforts will be completed, as long as the epidemic is under control, both fiscal and monetary activities can be expected, and the market will anticipate this change in advance.Based on the above facts, as long as there is a marginal change in the epidemic situation, the stock may quickly stop falling and rebound.