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Sinotruk (000951): Large tonnage, small standard, short time, long time, long wait for company performance to improve

Sinotruk (000951): Large tonnage, small standard, short time, long time, long wait for company performance to improve

Event Overview The company released the 2
019 third quarter report, Q1 2019?
Q3 achieved revenue of 292.

59 ppm, a ten-year average of 6.

3%; net profit attributable to mother 8.

20 ppm, an increase of 12 in ten years.

0%; deduct non-attributed net profit 7.

66 ppm, an increase of 9 in ten years.


Among them, in Q3 2019, revenue was 67.

910,000 yuan, an average of 21 in ten years.

8%; net profit attributable to mother 1.

80 ‰, 27 years ago.

5%; deduct non-attributed net profit 1.

73 ‰, 28 years ago.


  Analysis and judgment: The demand for engineering vehicles is weak, and the impact of the “large tonnage and small standard” deviation has not been eliminated. The increase in sales volume in the third quarter caused the change in the sales volume of heavy trucks as the reason for the company’s revenue substitution.

According to data from the China Automobile Association, the sales volume of China National Heavy Duty Truck Group’s caliber heavy trucks in Q3 20193.

520,000 vehicles, 6 years ago.

1%, less than one-third increase in sales of heavy trucks in the same period.

The performance of 7% was mainly due to the company’s history as an engineering vehicle. However, since the beginning of the year, sales of tractors and trucks have been relatively stable, and demand for engineering vehicles has been weak.

At the same time, the impact of the “large tonnage and small standard” incident on dump trucks and cement mixer trucks has not been eliminated in the short term. As the leader of tractor trucks, the A-share company’s absolute leader has been hit the most. The change in the sales volume of heavy trucks exceeded that of the Group’s caliber sales.

The gross profit margin was stable but the expense ratio increased, and the increase in net profit margin in the third quarter extended the company’s gross profit margin in Q3 201911.

16%, a slight decrease of 0 from Q2.

30pct, increase by 1 every year.

92pct, the gross profit margin performance is stable, the effect of increasing cost control efforts has continued.

The company’s expense ratio increased during the 2019Q3 period, among which: the sales expense ratio increased by 1.

41 points to 3.

95%, mainly due to the sluggish demand in the market segment, the company expanded its promotional activities; the management expense rate fell slightly to zero several times.

05pct to 0.

58%; R & D expense ratio increased by 0 in ten years.

32pct to 0.

63%, the company’s investment in research and development has increased significantly since this year; the financial expense ratio has increased slightly by 0 every year.

06pct to 0.

56%; four expense ratios total 5.

72%, increase by 1 every year.

74 points.

Although the gross profit margin decreased and improved, the increase in the expense ratio during the period caused the company’s Q3 net profit margin to decline and decrease by 0.

20pct to 3.
46%, the impact of consolidated revenue, the company’s Q3 net profit attributable to mothers decreased significantly.
The heavy prosperity of heavy trucks is still continuing. After the “large tonnage and small standard” subsides, the company ‘s profits will usher in improvement. At present, the elimination of domestic triple trucks is still progressing. In July 2021, heavy trucks will fully implement National Six emission standards and upgrade emissions.The high prosperity of the heavy truck segment will be guaranteed until at least 2020.

In the medium and long term, strict inspection of the “large tonnage and small standard” will lead to a decline in the capacity of bicycles of related models, which will lead to an increase in the number of vehicles and the corresponding demand for updates. As the leader of tractors, the company’s absolute leader in cement mixers is 四川耍耍网 expected to continue to benefitWe think the company’s profit will once again improve after the “big ton and small standard” subsides.

At the same time, after the new management took office, the company’s cost management was strengthened, Weichai entered the supporting system to make up for the short board of the engine, the vehicle competitiveness was further enhanced, and the company’s performance growth potential was optimistic.

  Investment advice to maintain the company 2019?
21 years return to net profit of mother 12.



The profit forecast of USD 100 million is unchanged, and the corresponding EPS is 1.



25 yuan, the current sustainable corresponding PE is 9.



4x, the company’s PB has been roughly 1 in the past 5 years.

Between 3x, the company is expected to reach a net asset of 10 by the end of 2019.

20 yuan, according to the historical center to maintain the company1.

7x PB estimate, corresponding to a target price of 17.

34 yuan, maintaining the “overweight” level.

  Risks indicate that the sales volume of the heavy truck industry is lower than expected; the demand for construction vehicles is weak and the sales volume accounts for a growth rate.